2009年5月28日星期四
Market Panic
上星期到上海出差，途中把此書下半部睇完。
此書作者Stephen Vine 係長期居於香港的財經記者。我感覺全書把很多投資、投機的恐慌事件綜論和分析，較適宜很想學投資分析的初學者。
下半部討論很多投資上的謬誤，例如：
Chapter 6 : The Trader and the fund manager
Chapter 8 : Does the diversification provide protection against stock market fluctuation ? (答案當然是 No !)
Chapter 9 : Is the market always right ?
此書對我來說，不及較早時看的Contagion 。
此書作者Stephen Vine 係長期居於香港的財經記者。我感覺全書把很多投資、投機的恐慌事件綜論和分析，較適宜很想學投資分析的初學者。
下半部討論很多投資上的謬誤，例如：
Chapter 6 : The Trader and the fund manager
Chapter 8 : Does the diversification provide protection against stock market fluctuation ? (答案當然是 No !)
Chapter 9 : Is the market always right ?
此書對我來說，不及較早時看的Contagion 。
2009年4月25日星期六
Contagion
復活節前後差不多看完此書，一直想講嚇呢本書但唔得閒。
呢本書很詳細介紹美國房地產泡沬一直到金融海嘯的原因。書成於2008年3月Bear Stern 收檔前後。
作者列舉美國過十幾年泡沬經濟的主因，
- 銀行隨便做樓按，中間有D 叫mortgage brokers 的，替借貸人作收入，務求做成貸款合約收 commission，銀行無理由唔知老作但都照借。樓價升，當然皆大歡喜，樓價跌銀行就面對借貸人走路、收D跌哂價嘅樓。有種Loan 叫 Ninja Loan 即借貸人No Income, No Job and no Application 嘅
- 投資銀行將D次級按揭打包做次按證劵及其他衍生工具產品，卒之滾大到一發不可收拾
- 較少人提及的是：政府和國會被各種各樣利益團體遊說 (lobbying) ，這些lobbyist幕後對兩黨作出大捐獻，當選的議員(尤其要經費競選連任者) 無不向損款者放水。作者指出金融業、各大投行也是玩捐獻以換取當政者對金融業放任政策。
- 果幾間大評級機構為爭生意胡亂對金融產品發AAA評級
作者又大力鞭撻摩登經濟社會現象，例如 ：
- Just as Wall Street investment banks got in trouble by utilizing too much leverage, the US government itself utilized increased leverage to live far beyond its means. The US government, as well as its people, during prosperous times, have not been happy with the consumption they could afford, but rather have borrowed vast sums of money; and gone into serious levels of debt to finance purchased and consumption tha they could not afford in the long run
- GDP growth goes up when companies pollute with dirty air and dirty water, and then have to purchase pollution-control equipments to clean it up. It’s hard to see how the average citizen us any better off than he was before the pollution was created, but this doesn’t prevent the GDP from increasing. Some experts argue that the US’s obsession with status seeking and materialism is not helpful to the quality of life at all yet dramatically increases economic output as measured by GDP……. If greater materialism does not lead to greater happiness the entire concept of GDP maximization has to be reexamined. Some people argue that even defense spending in the trillions of dollars is wasteful as it creates bombs to be exploded against bridges that need replacing and tanks that become obsolete fighting weapons systems that have been sold to old allies who have become new enemies.
- Not only does the GDP measure the wrong things, GDP is overly inflated and much of the growth it shows is phony because it is increasingly measuring things that it has not measured in the past. For example, mothers used to stay at home with their children and do a tremendous amount of work for free, which never showed up in the GDP. Now, the mothers work and their wages show up in GDP, but so does their expenditure for maids, child care, restaurants, fast food, etc.
呢本書很詳細介紹美國房地產泡沬一直到金融海嘯的原因。書成於2008年3月Bear Stern 收檔前後。
作者列舉美國過十幾年泡沬經濟的主因，
- 銀行隨便做樓按，中間有D 叫mortgage brokers 的，替借貸人作收入，務求做成貸款合約收 commission，銀行無理由唔知老作但都照借。樓價升，當然皆大歡喜，樓價跌銀行就面對借貸人走路、收D跌哂價嘅樓。有種Loan 叫 Ninja Loan 即借貸人No Income, No Job and no Application 嘅
- 投資銀行將D次級按揭打包做次按證劵及其他衍生工具產品，卒之滾大到一發不可收拾
- 較少人提及的是：政府和國會被各種各樣利益團體遊說 (lobbying) ，這些lobbyist幕後對兩黨作出大捐獻，當選的議員(尤其要經費競選連任者) 無不向損款者放水。作者指出金融業、各大投行也是玩捐獻以換取當政者對金融業放任政策。
- 果幾間大評級機構為爭生意胡亂對金融產品發AAA評級
作者又大力鞭撻摩登經濟社會現象，例如 ：
- Just as Wall Street investment banks got in trouble by utilizing too much leverage, the US government itself utilized increased leverage to live far beyond its means. The US government, as well as its people, during prosperous times, have not been happy with the consumption they could afford, but rather have borrowed vast sums of money; and gone into serious levels of debt to finance purchased and consumption tha they could not afford in the long run
- GDP growth goes up when companies pollute with dirty air and dirty water, and then have to purchase pollution-control equipments to clean it up. It’s hard to see how the average citizen us any better off than he was before the pollution was created, but this doesn’t prevent the GDP from increasing. Some experts argue that the US’s obsession with status seeking and materialism is not helpful to the quality of life at all yet dramatically increases economic output as measured by GDP……. If greater materialism does not lead to greater happiness the entire concept of GDP maximization has to be reexamined. Some people argue that even defense spending in the trillions of dollars is wasteful as it creates bombs to be exploded against bridges that need replacing and tanks that become obsolete fighting weapons systems that have been sold to old allies who have become new enemies.
- Not only does the GDP measure the wrong things, GDP is overly inflated and much of the growth it shows is phony because it is increasingly measuring things that it has not measured in the past. For example, mothers used to stay at home with their children and do a tremendous amount of work for free, which never showed up in the GDP. Now, the mothers work and their wages show up in GDP, but so does their expenditure for maids, child care, restaurants, fast food, etc.
2009年3月13日星期五
近期閱讀
More Than You Know - Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places
在布吉看了一半，相當有趣，我近年喜愛看投資心理的書。全書4 parts, 每一part又分成很多獨立題目的小章節。
Part 1 - Investment Philosophy - 講投資的原理、理性分析和常見謬誤。
Part 2 - Philosophy of Investing - 真係講投資心理，有多處以賭博作比較。作者推論臨場執生 guts 最緊要。
Part 3 - Innovation & Competitive Strategy 和 Part 4 Science and Complexity Theory 未看，可能會幾難。
投資王道
本書譯自 Jeremy Siegel 的 Stocks for the Long Run。
在布吉度假，看了頭兩章，幾易明，翻譯得幾好。
第一章解釋金本位制度，美國聯儲局如何調控貨幣供應。第二章講股票和經濟周期，但我認為同 Ahead Of The Curve 一樣都是祇適宜於美國市場。
既然譯得幾好，有空的話我會繼績看 。
在布吉看了一半，相當有趣，我近年喜愛看投資心理的書。全書4 parts, 每一part又分成很多獨立題目的小章節。
Part 1 - Investment Philosophy - 講投資的原理、理性分析和常見謬誤。
Part 2 - Philosophy of Investing - 真係講投資心理，有多處以賭博作比較。作者推論臨場執生 guts 最緊要。
Part 3 - Innovation & Competitive Strategy 和 Part 4 Science and Complexity Theory 未看，可能會幾難。
投資王道
本書譯自 Jeremy Siegel 的 Stocks for the Long Run。
在布吉度假，看了頭兩章，幾易明，翻譯得幾好。
第一章解釋金本位制度，美國聯儲局如何調控貨幣供應。第二章講股票和經濟周期，但我認為同 Ahead Of The Curve 一樣都是祇適宜於美國市場。
既然譯得幾好，有空的話我會繼績看 。
Ahead of The Curve
早排很快咁睇完呢本書，內容主要是如何從各種圖表來predict經濟周期，和講解各種影响經濟周期的數據，我睇到圖表數據就頭痛，但它講的原理頭頭是道都幾易明。但有一樣好緊要：美國人寫美國經濟周期、股市走勢等有大量歷史數據可供分析，但要搬來用於香港及內地的經濟、股市就可能行唔通。因為社會制度、政府政策、銷費心理都不同也。
早排很快咁睇完呢本書，內容主要是如何從各種圖表來predict經濟周期，和講解各種影响經濟周期的數據，我睇到圖表數據就頭痛，但它講的原理頭頭是道都幾易明。但有一樣好緊要：美國人寫美國經濟周期、股市走勢等有大量歷史數據可供分析，但要搬來用於香港及內地的經濟、股市就可能行唔通。因為社會制度、政府政策、銷費心理都不同也。
2008年11月25日星期二
2007年11月4日星期日
2007年10月9日星期二
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